Oct 13 , 2005: Parliament magazine
- Getting the balance right with Bird Flu
The first European cases of bird flu, found over the weekend in Turkey and Romania, highlight the importance of recent European efforts to plan for the unpredictable: a bird flu pandemic.
On 11 October the Environment and Public Health Committee
voted on a report on measures for the control of Avian Flu. As yet it appears
that the virus has not mutated into a form able to spread from person to
person. This is the big fear, and the good news is that so far the dangerous
strain of bird flu, H5N1, has shown itself to be very slow at mutating.
As long as it is passed on solely through close contact with infected birds
the effect on humans is unlikely to reach pandemic levels. However, the
geographical spread of hitherto affected areas, and the historic resilience
of the flu virus, does mean that it is a matter of when not if (although "when" might well not be any time soon). At the moment the threat of catastrophe (which briefly captured media attention over the summer) is not great, it is the potential of the unpredictable that is worrying. The terrible events in New Orleans may have knocked bird flu off the front pages, but the failure to plan or respond adequately to Hurricane Katrina demonstrated what happens when emergency situations are handled badly.
In recent weeks Health Commissioner Kyprianou has participated
in special meetings of the Environment and Agriculture Committees to discuss
the Commission's preparations with MEPs. Getting the balance right is extremely
important but very difficult: the need for surveillance, awareness and preparedness
could easily create panic at a time when the actual risk from bird flu remains
low. What is clearly needed, and what the Commission says it is facilitating,
is greater cooperation and coordination between Member States in devising,
testing and evaluating National Preparedness Plans.
Whether or not the response from the Commission, or Member
States, to a major international pandemic would be as cool, calm and collected
as the Commissioner's statements in Committee will hopefully never be put
to the test. Nonetheless the nagging question at the back of everyone's
mind is: are we really doing everything we can? While there are many good
signs, and plausible words, we are faced with, as Donald Rumsfeld put it, "known unknowns and unknown unknowns".
I asked Commissioner Kyprianou if Member States were doing
enough to stockpile vaccines. He said some were and some were not. Europe
produces 70% of the world's flu vaccine. Producers are concerned that the
lack of international agreements will provoke chaos in the event of an outbreak.
Countries with production capabilities will be put under pressure internally
to hang on to their own stocks while externally there will be a clamour
for vaccines from afflicted non-producer states. It is a disaster waiting
to happen. In addition there is, at present, nowhere near enough vaccine,
in the doses necessary, to vaccinate to the level that would be needed in
the event of a pandemic.
A further complication is that current vaccines are only
partially effective. No one can develop a fully effective one until the
pandemic strain of H5N1 reveals itself. That will only happen once people
have started to fall sick, and could well take up to 6 months to be ready:
too long, if there were to be an international pandemic.
While we must acknowledge these facts, we should not be
overwhelmed by them. We need: national preparedness plans, fully tested
and evaluated; international agreement on how best to produce, distribute
and manage vaccine stocks; greater financial support for affected areas
of South-East Asia to stop the cycle of infection at its source. Above all
we must explain what we are doing and why. There is no simple solution to
the threat of this pandemic; avoiding scare-mongering and insisting, in
a measured and informed way, that Governments' are held to account will
require cooperation from politicians, the public and the media. Bird flu
does not respect national borders. A coordinated approach from EU Member
States is essential if we are to deal with this threat effectively. It may
not be hitting the headlines as regularly as it was but efforts to improve
preparations continue.
Robert Sturdy MEP
Draftsman for the Environment and Public Health Committee on the
Proposal for a Council Directive on Community measures for the control of
Avian Influenza
